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AtmosMJ: Revisiting Gating Mechanism for AI Weather Forecasting Beyond the Year Scale

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Minjong Cheon

Outline

This paper addresses the stability issue of long-term forecasts using large-scale weather models (LWMs). While existing state-of-the-art models achieve interannual stability by transforming input data into non-standard spatial domains, such as spherical harmonics or HEALPix meshes, this paper demonstrates that similar performance can be achieved on a standard latitude-longitude grid. We propose AtmosMJ, a deep convolutional neural network that directly processes ERA5 data. This network generates stable forecasts for approximately 500 days by preventing error accumulation through a novel Gated Residual Fusion (GRF) mechanism. AtmosMJ achieves 10-day forecast accuracy comparable to models such as Pangu-Weather and GraphCast, while training in a low training cost of 5.7 days on a V100 GPU. This demonstrates that efficient architecture design, rather than non-standard data representations, is key to long-term weather forecasting.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
It shows that long-term stable weather forecasting is possible even on a standard latitude-longitude grid.
Emphasizes that efficient architecture design (GRF mechanism) is important for ensuring the stability of long-term predictions.
Achieve competitive prediction performance with lower training costs compared to existing models.
Limitations:
AtmosMJ's long-term prediction performance is limited to 500 days. Further research is needed to achieve longer-term predictions.
Further validation of generalization performance on other meteorological datasets or predictors is needed.
Further analysis of the physical meaning of the GRF mechanism is needed.
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