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Benchmarking Pre-Trained Time Series Models for Electricity Price Forecasting

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Timothee Hornek Amir Sartipi, Igor Tchappi, Gilbert Fridgen

Outline

This paper highlights the importance of accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) for effective decision-making in the electricity spot market and evaluates the electricity price forecasting performance of recently developed time-series-based models (TSFMs) based on generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and pre-trained giant language models (LLMs). State-of-the-art pre-trained models, including Chronos-Bolt, Chronos-T5, TimesFM, Moirai, Time-MoE, and TimeGPT, are compared and analyzed against existing statistical and machine learning (ML) methods. Using the 2024 Daily Futures Market (DAA) electricity price data from Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, and Belgium, one-day forecasts are performed. Results show that Chronos-Bolt and Time-MoE perform best among the TSFMs, achieving performance comparable to existing models. However, the bi-seasonal MSTL model, which considers daily and weekly seasonality, consistently outperforms the MSTL model regardless of country or evaluation index. No TSFM statistically outperforms the MSTL model.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
Some TSFMs demonstrate power price prediction performance comparable to that of existing statistical and machine learning models.
The MSTL model, which takes into account double seasonality, shows consistent and superior performance across various countries and evaluation indicators.
It shows that the performance of TSFM is not always superior to existing models.
Limitations:
The data used in the analysis is limited to data for the year 2024 only.
Generalizability across various market conditions or forecast periods may be limited.
A detailed explanation of hyperparameter optimization in TSFM may be lacking.
Further research is needed to definitively establish the superiority of a particular TSFM model.
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