Daily Arxiv

This is a page that curates AI-related papers published worldwide.
All content here is summarized using Google Gemini and operated on a non-profit basis.
Copyright for each paper belongs to the authors and their institutions; please make sure to credit the source when sharing.

FinZero: Launching Multi-modal Financial Time Series Forecast with Large Reasoning Model

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Yanlong Wang, Jian Xu, Fei Ma, Hongkang Zhang, Hang Yu, Tiantian Gao, Yu Wang, Haochen You, Shao-Lun Huang, Danny Dongning Sun, Xiao-Ping Zhang

Outline

This paper highlights the challenges of financial time series forecasting and the limitations of existing approaches (information loss due to data standardization, fixed number of variables and historical time series length, interpretability, and forecast uncertainty). To address these challenges, we construct a diverse financial image-text dataset (FVLDB) and develop an uncertainty-adjusted group-relative policy optimization (UARPO) method capable of forecasting and uncertainty analysis. We propose FinZero, a multimodal pre-trained model fine-tuned with UARPO, to perform inference, forecasting, and analytical understanding of FVLDB financial time series. Experimental results demonstrate strong adaptability and scalability, and in particular, FinZero improves prediction accuracy by approximately 13.48% in the high-confidence group compared to GPT-4o, demonstrating the effectiveness of reinforcement learning fine-tuning in multimodal, large-scale models.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
Demonstrating the effectiveness of multimodal pre-trained models and reinforcement learning in financial time series forecasting.
We present a model that can analyze not only the predicted results but also the uncertainty.
Experimentally verifying the high adaptability and scalability of the FinZero model.
Overcomes the Limitations of existing methods and improves prediction accuracy.
Limitations:
Lack of information on the specific composition and size of the FVLDB dataset.
Lack of description of the specific algorithm and details of the UARPO method.
Further comparative analysis with other financial time series forecasting models is needed.
Further validation is needed for application to actual financial markets.
👍