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Uncertainty Quantification in Probabilistic Machine Learning Models: Theory, Methods, and Insights

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Marzieh Ajirak, Anand Ravishankar, Petar M. Djuric

Outline

This paper presents a framework for systematically estimating uncertainty quantification (UQ) to assess the reliability of predictions in probabilistic machine learning models. Specifically, we focus on the Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model (GPLVM), which efficiently approximates the predictive distribution using a scalable Random Fourier Feature-based Gaussian Process. This model estimates both epistemic and random uncertainty, derives a theoretical formulation for UQ, and proposes a Monte Carlo sampling-based estimation method. Experiments demonstrate the impact of uncertainty estimation, provide insights into the sources of predictive uncertainty, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
Provides a systematic framework for efficiently estimating epistemic and random uncertainty in probabilistic machine learning models.
A scalable UQ method utilizing Gaussian processes based on random Fourier features is presented.
A practical uncertainty estimation method based on Monte Carlo sampling is proposed.
Provides insight into the sources of forecast uncertainty and improves forecast confidence.
Limitations:
The performance of the proposed method may depend on the accuracy of the Gaussian process approximation used.
Limited to a specific type of model (GPLVM), further research is needed to determine generalizability to other models.
Experiments on more diverse datasets and models are needed to increase the generalizability of the experimental results.
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