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Beyond the Pre-Service Horizon: Infusing In-Service Behavior for Improved Financial Risk Forecasting

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Senhao Liu, Zhiyu Guo, Zhiyuan Ji, Yueguo Chen, Yateng Tang, Yunhai Wang, Xuehao Zheng, Xiang Ao

Outline

This paper proposes Multi-Grain Knowledge Distillation (MGKD), a novel framework that integrates ex ante risk assessment and in-service default detection in financial risk management. MGKD aims to improve ex ante risk prediction performance by leveraging in-service user behavior data. It follows the concept of knowledge distillation, where a teacher model trained on in-service data supervises a student model trained on pre-trained data. It aligns the representations and predictions of the teacher and student models through multi-grain distillation strategies, including coarse-grained, fine-grained, and self-distillation. A reweighting strategy is adopted to mitigate model bias against minority classes. Experimental results using a large-scale real-world dataset from Tencent Mobile Payment demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in both offline and online environments.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
Improved accuracy of pre-risk prediction by integrating pre-risk assessment and in-service default detection steps.
Effectively transfer knowledge from the teacher model to the student model through a multi-grain knowledge distillation strategy.
Applying a reweighting strategy to mitigate minority class bias.
Validation of the effectiveness of the approach through experimental results using actual large-scale datasets.
Limitations:
Only experimental results for a specific mobile payment dataset are presented; further research is needed to determine generalizability to other financial services or datasets.
Lack of analysis of the computational cost and complexity of the MGKD framework.
Lack of optimization of the reweighting strategy used and comparative analysis with other strategies.
Lack of discussion on verification and management methods for the reliability of the teacher model.
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