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On the Integration of Spatial-Temporal Knowledge: A Lightweight Approach to Atmospheric Time Series Forecasting

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Yisong Fu, Fei Wang, Zezhi Shao, Boyu Diao, Lin Wu, Zhulin An, Chengqing Yu, Yujie Li, Yongjun Xu

Outline

This paper revisits the ATSF (Atmosphere Time Series Forecasting) from the theoretical perspective of atmospheric dynamics to address the problems of excessive parameter count and long training time due to the complex structure of the Transformer. We present the key insight that the Space-Time Position Embedding (STPE) can model spatial-temporal correlations without an attention mechanism. Building on this insight, we propose STELLA, a lightweight model utilizing only the STPE and a multi-layered linear prediction (MLP) architecture. STELLA outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods on five datasets with 10,000 parameters and one hour of training time. We highlight the effectiveness of integrating spatial-temporal knowledge over complex architectures, providing new insights into ATSF.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
Overcoming the complexity of Transformer and achieving performance improvement of ATSF with a lightweight model.
Empirically demonstrating the effectiveness of spatial-temporal knowledge integration using STPE.
Achieves excellent performance with 10,000 parameters and 1 hour of training, significantly improving scalability and efficiency.
Presenting a new direction for ATSF research.
Limitations:
Further verification of the generalization performance of the proposed model is needed.
Further research is needed to determine applicability to various meteorological phenomena and datasets.
There is a possibility that the effect of STPE may be biased towards certain types of datasets.
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