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BinConv: A Neural Architecture for Ordinal Encoding in Time-Series Forecasting

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Andrei Chernov, Vitaliy Pozdnyakov, Ilya Makarov

Outline

This paper builds on recent research on reframing regression problems in time series prediction as classification problems, discretizing a continuous target space to perform predictions for a fixed set of classes. To address the problem of losing relative distance information between target values (which is a common problem in conventional one-hot encoding), we propose Cumulative Binary Encoding (CBE), which preserves order and magnitude information. To effectively utilize CBE, we propose BinConv, a fully convolutional neural network architecture for probabilistic prediction. We demonstrate that convolutional layers, when combined with CBE, are computationally more efficient and improve prediction performance compared to fully connected layers. Experimental results on standard benchmark datasets demonstrate that BinConv outperforms existing methods in both point and probabilistic prediction, while also providing fewer parameters and faster learning speed.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
For time series forecasting problems with continuous target variables, we show that cumulative binary encoding (CBE) can be used to improve the performance of classification-based approaches.
We demonstrate that the fully convolutional neural network (BinConv) architecture used with CBE has superior computational efficiency and prediction performance compared to conventional fully connected layer-based models.
Achieves performance superior to existing state-of-the-art techniques in both point prediction and probabilistic prediction.
Limitations:
The performance of the proposed method may be limited to certain benchmark datasets.
Possibility of information loss during the binarization process of CBE.
Further research is needed to determine whether the structural features of BinConv can be applied to other types of time series data.
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