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VARMA-Enhanced Transformer for Time Series Forecasting

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Jiajun Song, Xiaoou Liu

Outline

In this paper, we propose a novel architecture, VARMAformer, to improve the efficiency and accuracy of Transformer-based time series forecasting models. While maintaining the efficiency of existing cross-attention-only methods, we combine the strengths of the VARMA model to more effectively capture local temporal dependencies. Key innovations include the VARMA-inspired Feature Extractor (VFE), which explicitly models AR and MA patterns, and the VARMA-Enhanced Attention (VE-atten) mechanism, which enhances contextual awareness. Experiments on various benchmark datasets demonstrate that VFE outperforms existing state-of-the-art models, demonstrating the significant benefits of integrating classical statistical insights into modern deep learning frameworks for time series forecasting.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
A novel architecture (VARMAformer) is presented to improve the efficiency and accuracy of cross-attention-only transformer-based models.
Effectively model local temporal dependencies by leveraging the strengths of the classical VARMA model.
Verified performance that surpasses existing state-of-the-art models on various benchmark datasets.
A case study demonstrating the successful integration of classical statistical knowledge and deep learning.
Limitations:
Further research is needed on the generalization performance of the proposed model.
Applicability and performance analysis for various types of time series data is required.
Possible lack of detailed analysis of parameter tuning of VFE and VE-atten mechanisms.
Need to review the possibility of overfitting to specific datasets.
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