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Efficient Transfer Learning via Causal Bounds

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Xueping Gong, Wei You, Jiheng Zhang

Outline

This paper focuses on transfer learning to accelerate sequential decision making by leveraging offline data obtained from heterogeneous data sources. Data from heterogeneous data sources that differ in observed features, distributions, or unobserved confounding variables often deidentify causal effects and bias simple estimates. To address this, this paper forms an ambiguity set of structural causal models defined by integral constraints on joint densities. Optimizing any causal effect over such a set typically leads to nonconvex programming, which provides a solution that strictly bounds the range of possible effects under heterogeneity or perturbation. For an efficient solution, this paper develops a hit-and-run sampler that explores the entire ambiguity set, and uses it with a local optimization oracle to generate causal boundary estimates that almost certainly converge to the true bound. To accommodate estimation errors, we relax the ambiguity set and establish exact error propagation guarantees by exploiting the Lipschitz continuity of causal effects. These causal boundaries are incorporated into the bandit algorithm via cancer removal and truncated UCB indices to produce optimal interval-dependent and minimax regret boundaries. To handle estimation errors, we also develop a secure algorithm that incorporates noisy causal boundaries. In the contextual bandit setting with function approximation, our method uses causal boundaries to prune both the set of actions per function class and context, achieving matching upper and lower regret boundaries with only logarithmic dependence on the function class complexity. Our analysis precisely characterizes when and how causal side information accelerates online learning, and experiments on synthetic benchmarks demonstrate significant regret reduction in data-poor or perturbed environments.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
A novel approach to estimating causal effects in heterogeneous data: rigorously calculating the boundaries of causal effects using ambiguity sets
Development of an efficient hit-and-run sampler and guaranteed error propagation
Improving the bandit algorithm using causal boundaries and achieving optimal regret boundaries
Presenting an effective pruning strategy in situational bandit settings using function approximation
Significant reduction in regret in environments with insufficient or disturbed data
Limitations:
Presents only experimental results on synthetic data: validation on real-world data is needed
Computational Complexity of Hit-and-Run Samplers: Scalability to High-Dimensional Problems Needed
Definition and size of ambiguity sets: Need for fit and optimization for real problems
Limitations of the Lipschitz continuity assumption: Need for countermeasures when the assumption is not met
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