Daily Arxiv

This is a page that curates AI-related papers published worldwide.
All content here is summarized using Google Gemini and operated on a non-profit basis.
Copyright for each paper belongs to the authors and their institutions; please make sure to credit the source when sharing.

Long Input Sequence Network for Long Time Series Forecasting

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Chao Ma, Yikai Hou, Xiang Li, Yinggang Sun, Haining Yu

Outline

This paper presents a novel method to address the limitations of fixed-length inputs in long-term time series forecasting. Existing deep learning models suffer from overfitting as input lengths increase, leading to a rapid decline in accuracy. This is attributed to the combination of multi-scale patterns in time series and the fixed focus scale of the model. This study finds that patterns appearing at various scales in time series reflect multi-cycle characteristics, with each scale corresponding to a specific cycle length. Furthermore, it reveals that token size determines the model's behavior, determining the scales it focuses on and the context size it can accommodate. Therefore, we propose a novel method that separates multi-scale temporal patterns in time series and models each pattern as a token size representing its corresponding cycle length. By introducing the Time Series Decomposition Module (MPSD) and the Multi-Token Pattern Recognition Neural Network (MTPR), we can process inputs up to 10x longer, improving performance by up to 38% while reducing computational complexity by 0.22x and enhancing interpretability.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
A novel method to overcome the limitations of fixed-length inputs in long-term time series forecasting is presented.
Input length can be increased up to 10 times.
Improves accuracy by up to 38%.
Reduces computational complexity by 0.22x.
Improving the interpretability of the model.
Limitations:
Further research is needed to determine the generality of the proposed method and its applicability to various time series data.
Need to verify whether it is effective only for certain types of time series data.
Lack of detailed description of the specific design and parameter settings of the MPSD and MTPR modules.
👍