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Consensus in Motion: A Case of Dynamic Rationality of Sequential Learning in Probability Aggregation

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Polina Gordienko, Christoph Jansen, Thomas Augustin, Martin Rechenauer

Outline

This paper proposes a probabilistic aggregation framework based on propositional probability logic. Unlike existing judgment aggregation approaches that focus on static rationality, this model addresses dynamic rationality by ensuring that collective beliefs are consistently updated in response to new information. We show that all consensual and independent aggregation rules for non-overlapping agendas are linear. Furthermore, we present sufficient conditions for a fair learning process, where individuals initially agree on a subset of propositions, called the common ground, and new information is constrained to this shared ground. This ensures that individual judgment updates via Bayesian conditionalization generate identical collective beliefs, whether performed before or after aggregation. A key feature of this framework is its ability to handle sequential decision-making, allowing for the gradual integration of new information across multiple stages while maintaining established common ground. We illustrate our findings with examples from political scenarios concerning health and immigration policies.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
A new probability aggregation framework based on dynamic rationality using propositional probability logic.
Proof of linearity of agreeable and independent aggregation rules in non-overlapping agendas
Presenting sufficient conditions for a fair learning process and ensuring consistency with Bayesian conditioning.
Presenting an information integration method that considers sequential decision-making.
Limitations:
Further experimental verification of the practical applicability and efficiency of the proposed framework is needed.
The practical difficulties of establishing a common ground and the issue of subjectivity need to be considered.
Generalizability needs to be examined for diverse decision-making situations and complex agendas.
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