Daily Arxiv

This is a page that curates AI-related papers published worldwide.
All content here is summarized using Google Gemini and operated on a non-profit basis.
Copyright for each paper belongs to the authors and their institutions; please make sure to credit the source when sharing.

The Paradox of Doom: Acknowledging Extinction Risk Reduces the Incentive to Prevent It

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Jakub Growiec, Klaus Prettner

Outline

This paper examines the impact of extinction risk on human patience. It distinguishes between human extinction risk and individual mortality risk, considers varying levels of intergenerational altruism, and considers the evolutionary perspective of the "selfish gene." The study reveals that while human extinction risk is an essential factor in discount rates, individual mortality risk can be partially or fully hedged through human reproduction. When faced with extinction risk, people become more impatient rather than more long-term. Therefore, the greater the threat of extinction, the less incentive there is to invest in avoiding extinction. These findings may help explain why humanity consistently underinvests in catastrophic risks, such as climate change mitigation, pandemic prevention, and addressing the risks of transformative artificial intelligence.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways: Human extinction risk significantly influences discount rates, which may contribute to explaining underinvestment in catastrophic risks such as climate change, pandemics, and AI. This suggests that extinction risk negatively impacts human patience, reducing the incentive to invest in risk-averse strategies.
Limitations: This study is based on a theoretical model and lacks validation through empirical data. While various levels of intergenerational altruism were considered, further discussion is needed regarding its specific aspects and measurement. Further explanation is needed regarding the application of the "selfish gene" perspective.
👍