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Retrieving Classes of Causal Orders with Inconsistent Knowledge Bases

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Federico Baldo, Simon Ferreira, Charles K. Assaad

Outline

This paper points out the __T2189__ of the existing causal inference methodologies and proposes a novel methodology to extract causal knowledge from text-based metadata by utilizing large-scale language models (LLMs). To address the reliability issue of LLMs, we introduce a consistency measure and focus on inferring causal order instead of directed causal graphs (DAGs) by considering indirect causal relationships. We propose a method to derive a class of acyclic tournaments that maximize the consistency score of LLMs, and use them to estimate causal effects. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed method by conducting experiments using real-world datasets and existing benchmarks in the fields of epidemiology and public health.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
We present a new approach to extract causal knowledge by utilizing LLM, overcoming the limitations of existing causal inference methodologies.
Addresses the reliability issues of LLM through consistency measures and provides a more robust and practical methodology by focusing on causal order.
Validation of the effectiveness of the methodology through experiments using real datasets.
A method for estimating causal effects using causal order is presented.
Limitations:
Since this methodology is dependent on the performance of LLM, the limitations of LLM may affect the performance of this methodology.
The reliability of the results may vary depending on the quality of the text metadata.
Acyclic tournaments may not represent all possible causal relationships, meaning that they may miss certain causal relationships.
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