Daily Arxiv

This is a page that curates AI-related papers published worldwide.
All content here is summarized using Google Gemini and operated on a non-profit basis.
Copyright for each paper belongs to the authors and their institutions; please make sure to credit the source when sharing.

Time Evidence Fusion Network: Multi-source View in Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Tianxiang Zhan, Yuanpeng He, Yong Deng, Zhen Li, Wenjie Du, Qingsong Wen

Outline

This paper proposes a novel backbone architecture, the Temporal Evidence Fusion Network (TEFN), that combines accuracy and efficiency in temporal time series forecasting. TEFN captures uncertainty in both the channel and temporal dimensions of multivariate time series data by introducing a Default Probability Assignment (BPA) module based on evidence theory. We then develop a novel multi-information fusion method that effectively integrates information from both dimensions from the BPA output, thereby improving forecast accuracy. Experimental results demonstrate that TEFN achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art methods while significantly reducing complexity and training time. Furthermore, TEFN exhibits high robustness by minimizing error variance during hyperparameter selection, and its fuzzy theory-derived BPA provides high interpretability. Therefore, TEFN is a desirable solution for temporal time series forecasting that balances accuracy, efficiency, robustness, and interpretability.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
A novel architecture, TEFN, is proposed to achieve both accuracy and efficiency in temporal time series forecasting.
Effectively handling uncertainty in multivariate time series data through evidence theory-based BPA modules.
Achieve performance comparable to state-of-the-art methods with significantly lower complexity and training time.
Ensure high robustness and interpretability for hyperparameters.
Limitations:
Further verification of the generalizability of the experimental results presented in this paper is needed.
The complexity of the BPA module may lead to performance degradation for certain types of time series data.
In actual applications, the computational cost of the BPA module may be a limiting factor depending on the situation.
👍