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Generative artificial intelligence improves projections of climate extremes

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Ruian Tie, Xiaohui Zhong, Zhengyu Shi, Hao Li, Bin Chen, Jun Liu, Wu Libo

FuXi-CMIPAlign: Generative Deep Learning for Downscaling CMIP Outputs

Outline

The amplification of extreme weather events due to climate change poses serious threats to biodiversity, human health, and food security. While climate models (GCMs) are essential for predicting future climate, their low resolution and high computational costs limit their ability to represent extreme events. In this paper, we introduce FuXi-CMIPAlign, a generative deep learning framework for downscaling the output of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This model performs generative modeling using flow matching and integrates domain adaptation via the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) loss to align feature distributions between training and inference data. This mitigates input mismatch and improves accuracy, stability, and generalization across emission scenarios. FuXi-CMIPAlign performs spatial, temporal, and multivariate downscaling, enabling more realistic simulations of complex extreme events such as tropical cyclones.

Takeaways, Limitations

Potential for improving the accuracy of extreme weather predictions: Downscaling CMIP outputs could improve the precision of future climate change projections.
Improved simulation of complex extreme events: Demonstrates the potential to more realistically simulate complex extreme events such as tropical cyclones.
Improved model generalization performance: Designed to produce stable results across a variety of emission scenarios, making it highly applicable to real-world climate change research.
A new approach based on deep learning: Leveraging flow matching and domain adaptation to open new directions in climate modeling.
Computational cost: Due to the nature of deep learning models, training and inference may require significant computational resources.
Data dependence: Model performance is highly dependent on the quality and quantity of training data and can be affected by data bias.
Black box problem: The nature of deep learning models can make it difficult to interpret how they work, and the results can lack transparency.
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