Daily Arxiv

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Statistical post-processing yields accurate probabilistic forecasts from Artificial Intelligence weather models

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Belinda Trotta, Robert Johnson, Catherine de Burgh-Day, Debra Hudson, Esteban Abellan, James Canvin, Andrew Kelly, Daniel Mentiplay, Benjamin Owen, Jennifer Whelan

Outline

This paper highlights that while artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather models have achieved operational-level performance for certain variables, they still suffer from systematic biases and reliability issues, similar to those of conventional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. We apply IMPROVER, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's statistical postprocessing system, to ECMWF's Deterministic AI Forecast System (AIFS) and compare the postprocessed results with those from the ECMWF HRES and ENS models. Without modifying the workflow, postprocessing yields similar accuracy improvements for AIFS compared to conventional NWP forecasts, demonstrating both forecast accuracy and probabilistic output. Furthermore, we demonstrate that blending AIFS with NWP models improves overall forecast accuracy, even when AIFS alone is not the most accurate.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
We demonstrate that statistical postprocessing methods developed for NWP can be directly applied to AI models.
It allows the National Weather Service to gradually integrate AI forecasts into existing workflows with low risk.
Prediction accuracy can be improved by mixing AIFS and NWP models.
Limitations:
There is no direct mention of Limitations in the paper.
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