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Second Place is Desperate: A Look at China's AI Crisis in Beijing
Immediately following the 9 trillion won IPO, Chinese leaders issued warnings of a "widening gap"—a message to Korea. January 10, 2026, Beijing. Tang Jie, founder of Zhipu AI, which had successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange two days earlier, attended the AGI Next Frontier Summit held at Tsinghua University. If you expected a celebratory atmosphere upon receiving recognition for his company's valuation of approximately 9 trillion won, you'd be mistaken. His first words were not congratulations, but a warning. "Some are excited that China has overtaken the United States as our open-source models are doing well. But the reality is the opposite. The gap may actually be widening." The key leaders of China's AI industry, including Alibaba, Tencent, and Dark Side of the Moon (Kimi), gathered together, unanimously agreed: the reality facing China was not "catch-up," but "survival." This sober self-assessment poses a weighty question for Korea, which aims to become one of the top three AI powers. Even China, the world's second-largest country, is acting with such desperation. What are we doing now? "Less than 20%": China's leaders' sober calculation of the odds. The most notable statement at the summit was a number thrown by Lin Junyang, Alibaba's Qwen technology director: "The probability of surpassing OpenAI or Anthropic through fundamental technological breakthroughs within the next three to five years is less than 20%. Even this figure is an optimistic estimate." This isn't mere humility. His further comments, reported by Reuters, point to a structural problem: "The U.S. computing infrastructure is one or two orders of magnitude larger than ours. They pour massive computing power into next-generation research, while ours consumes most of its infrastructure just for running services (inference)." This diagnosis is crucial because it reveals an invisible gap: "research computing headroom ." China is struggling to keep its current services running, while the United States has the resources to experiment with the future. Lin Junyang summarized this bluntly: "We're strapped for cash." Tang Jie's warning is even more pointed: "Don't be fooled by the open source success alone. There are still many closed models in the US that have not been released." In other words, while they are doing well in the visible competition, the gap may have widened in the invisible frontier . On the other hand, Yao Shuyuan, a former OpenAI researcher and newly appointed chief AI scientist at Tencent, was somewhat optimistic. "There's a high possibility that Chinese companies will become the world's leading AI companies within three to five years," he said. However, he also pointed out a bottleneck: "The lack of advanced lithography equipment and production tools is the biggest technological barrier." This spectrum reveals the tension within the Chinese AI community, a situation where hope and a sense of crisis coexist. Breakthrough Strategies Within Constraints: "Efficiency Innovation" and "Risk Taking" The breakthrough strategies put forth by Chinese leaders can be broadly summarized into three keywords. 1. Algorithm-hardware co-design Lin Junyang declared that he would turn limited resources into an opportunity for innovation. "China's limited computing resources have actually enabled researchers to be innovative. In particular, through algorithm-hardware co-design, large models can now be run on small, inexpensive hardware." This isn't simply about improving efficiency. It's a strategy to create new evaluation criteria . Tang Jie proposed a new framework called "Intelligence Efficiency," and Yang Zilin (founder of Moonshot AI) redefined the law of scaling as "the process of converting energy into intelligence." If markets and investors embrace this new rule, China's constraints could become a game-changing lever rather than a weakness. 2. An environment where risk can be taken Tang emphasized that the "risk-taking culture," once considered exclusive to Silicon Valley, is spreading among Chinese AI entrepreneurs. "Creating the time and environment to embrace high-risk innovation is something the government and the nation can help with." This goes beyond simple funding. It implies institutional mechanisms that allow for failure and separate research-specific computing pools .
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Coaching resumes.
I'm starting Skewer Coach again For about half a year, the skewer coach was at a standstill. It's not like it disappeared or something was stopped I was just in a state where I couldn't continue. The direction of my life and work has changed quite a bit over the years, Meeting people in the name of coaching I wonder if I can do it responsibly in my current state. I kept asking myself: So I stopped, I cleaned up, When I decided that it was time to start again Now I open the door carefully. I needed to stabilize my business and regain the freedom to guide others. However, there is one thing that has changed. The skewer coach is going forward This event is only available to YouTube channel membership subscribers. The reason is simple. Coaching requires a certain degree of sharing of each other's context. Because it can lead to meaningful conversations. Those who already have some idea of the problem and the conclusion of the thought process through my content I wanted to talk a little deeper. So, it is not a ‘counseling service that anyone can apply for’,
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🎄To celebrate Christmas, we are releasing articles previously available only to members for free.
1️⃣ Go To Market 101 in 1 Hour 2️⃣ How to raise the prices of SaaS services 3️⃣ Why do so many startups talk about GTM? 4️⃣ Go To Market: Bridging the Gap Between Markets and Data 5️⃣ How ICP and PMF Terms Are Ruining Your Business 6️⃣ Why is it irresponsible to call it a global market? 7️⃣ Glass Slippers Aren't for Sale: Misconceptions About Retention and GTM in the AI Era
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🎄 People who have nothing to do on Christmas, come here
🎄 People who have nothing to do on Christmas, come here Not everyone has plans for Christmas. Sometimes, when I let a day pass by without a trace, I feel like I have nothing left even though it's the end of the year. So I prepared it. Exactly one hour, time without regrets. This Christmas, instead of saying, "I studied," try leaving behind the experience of "making something." 🎁 Two 1-hour hands-on webinars 1️⃣ Learn how to create a detailed page/website in just 1 hour For non-developers Create your own website that you can actually use. 👉 https://event-us.kr/m/118607/47927 2️⃣ Create an automated bot in just 1 hour Connect Telegram / Slack / Google Sheets Let's create a structure where information flows automatically. 👉 https://event-us.kr/m/118608/47928 ✔ Live streaming is for understanding the flow, and unlimited replays are available. ✔ Questions can be asked at any time, until On Christmas When you feel like you have nothing to do, That time might actually be the best start.
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Curiosity
I use a Chrome extension called Surfit. I personally thought it was because it curated good articles and allowed me to read them. But recently, I've been feeling strange. Our company recently received investment. We received lead funding through a16z, and the company was valued at $2.1 million. That's equivalent to about 3 trillion won in Korean currency. And going further, I recently had the opportunity to talk about things like PMF and RPF. Having worked in the IT industry for over ten years, I've gained a wealth of experience in these areas. Recently, I've even been willing to conduct free webinars and interviews, all thanks to this approach. Actually, the point isn't free or exposure... The New York Times is the only official interview we've had on this topic. Our CEO, Grant, returned from vacation yesterday, and we haven't received any interviews or questions through our official channels. The same goes for how we found PMF. This article was a mix of previous interviews and other material. At first, I wondered if another person had conducted the interview, but now I'm curious. I appreciate your sharing, but what exactly do you know to make such a statement?
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🟣 When the conversation starts again
Embargo, Waiting, and the Temperature of Trust Today, the official article from Gamma was released to the world. The news that I can finally tell you now that the embargo has been lifted is, It was more than just investment news. “Gamma, a PowerPoint for the AI Era, Raises $68 Million.” — The New York Times, 2025.11.08. Nytimes.com Gamma raised $68 million led by Andreessen Horowitz. The company reached a valuation of $2.1 billion . The news was another example of "quiet but powerful innovation," as a self-sustaining AI startup with a team of just 52 people grew to over 70 million users and generate profits. A period of waiting, and then an email There was a brief period of slowdown in communication with Grant and Amanda. I voluntarily gave up my on-site position and worked remotely, currently in South Korea. However, I met with the legendary a16z via video conference. I explained the potential of Korea and the Asian market. I was nervous about whether my contribution, even a single gram, would be beneficial to their investment decision and how my role would be perceived. This was only discussed at the C-level level, and rumors of a senior exit began to circulate, raising concerns that the investment deal had failed. A moment of understanding, and then a new beginning Now that I understand the whole situation, I feel much more at ease. After we got to know each other's positions, I reopened the conversation with this email. "After understanding the background of what's been going on, everything makes a lot more sense now. I'm really glad we can get back to open and comfortable communication." What was contained in that one line was not a simple greeting. "Now let's talk comfortably again" It was a restoration of trust and a reset of the relationship. Work is, after all, the art of relationships. What I learned from doing this job is, "Professionalism" means "an attitude of trying to understand the other person's time and context." Projects always move within schedules, goals, and numbers.
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🎖 Time Magazine's Greatest Inventions of 2025
Robotics Figure 03 — Household robots EufyMake E1 UV Printer — Textured Printing at Home HoverAir X1 ProMax — Personal Videography Drone Unitree R1 — Super-Agile Humanoid Accessibility American Printing House Monarch — Braille + Graphics Tablet Lotus Ring — Point-and-Click Smart Home Ring Tilt Grip Stick — Easy-to-use lip balm even for those with awkward hands Aerospace AST SpaceMobile BlueBird — Ultra-fast Internet from Space Firefly Blue Ghost — A leap to the moon FireSat — Early Wildfire Detection Vera C. Rubin Observatory — The Next Generation Sky Watcher Agriculture FutureFeed Asparagopsis Supplement — Feed for Reduced Methane Emissions Innovea Global Coffee Breeding Network — Climate-Smart Coffee Varieties RootWave eWeeder — Electric Weeding for Herbicide Savings Scout Gen 5 — Automated Vineyard Management Thunderstruck Razors Edge Concaves — High-efficiency harvesting Vanilla Vida Data-Driven Indoor Curing — Indoor data-driven vanilla curing
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It's the "hardware", stupid
"Try talking to the shirt." This was the proposal from Humane, which launched the $700 AI Pin in 2024. However, the product disappeared from the market just a year later. In February 2025, after being acquired by HP, all services were discontinued. Customer support was also discontinued, and even then, only buyers could receive a refund within 90 days. Humane wasn't alone. The fluorescent orange AI device, Rabbit R1, initially received 100,000 pre-orders, but within months of its release, only 5,000 people had used it. The $129 Friend necklace, an "AI friend" that listened to your conversations and sent you encouraging messages, was ultimately dismissed as nothing more than a Bluetooth microphone. Why did all this AI hardware fail? And amidst all this failure, why did OpenAI bet a whopping $6.5 billion on iPhone designer Jony Ive? AI devices that fail the 'everyday test' Google co-founder Larry Page has a special criterion: the "Toothbrush Test ." It's simple: "Will the product be used at least once or twice a day, like a toothbrush?" When considering a potential acquisition, Larry Page asks this question before considering financial statements. He wants to see if the product improves people's lives and is essential enough to be used daily. Search, email, messaging, social media—almost every successful digital product we use every day passes this toothbrush test. They're the things we naturally reach for when we wake up in the morning. So what about AI hardware? The Humane AI Pin cost $700 plus a monthly subscription fee of $24, but it was slow, had no screen, and only sold a few thousand units. Wearing the pin on your shirt and watching the screen project onto your palm was an awkward experience in itself. "In a world where smartphones already do almost everything, it's hard to justify a $700 device that whispers in your ear." The crux of the problem was clear: these devices were captivated by "technical possibilities," but failed to address "user problems." There was no reason to use it every day. The iPhone wasn't successful because of its beautiful design. It was because it packed everything we needed every day—phone calls, music, internet, photos, maps—into a single device. It passed the toothbrush test perfectly. AI can't replace smartphones. Jony Ive candidly admitted in an interview with The New York Times, "I bear a lot of responsibility for the impact the iPhone has had on users' attention spans and anxiety." He wanted to create a new device beyond the iPhone. But the reality is stark. Even Sam Altman told Bloomberg, "Our first product won't kill the smartphone, just as the smartphone didn't kill the laptop." Why? People don't throw away their smartphones. The reason is simple: It's visual — screens are still the most efficient way to convey information. It's intuitive — touch is often faster and more accurate than voice. It's already part of our habits — we already check our smartphones dozens of times a day. For AI hardware to succeed, it must integrate, not replace, smartphones. AI shouldn't be introduced as a new device, but rather embedded within the smartphones we already use every day. The $6.5 Billion Challenge — OpenAI × Jony Ive In May 2025, OpenAI acquired Jony Ive's startup io for approximately $6.5 billion, the largest acquisition in OpenAI's history. Jony Ive and his team of 55—most of whom were former Apple designers who created the iPhone, iPod, and Apple Watch—joined OpenAI.
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Cost Golden Cross in the Content Market
The moment the industry's formula collapses In January 2020, AI-generated content accounted for just 5% of all online posts . However, by May 2025, that number had soared to 48%, according to an analysis of 65,000 English-language articles by researchers at Oxford University. Simple calculations suggest that if this trend continues, the figure could exceed 90% by 2026 . It can also be seen that the 'Cost Golden Cross' has occurred. The 1,000:1 Rule — Price Changes Everything An article created by AI costs less than $0.01 , while an article written by a human writer costs $0.01. It ranges from $10 to $100 . According to a study on content production costs, the average cost of an AI-generated blog post is $131 . Human-generated content is worth $611 , a difference of about 4.7 times . Let's look at a more extreme example: when AI bots and human editors collaborate. 30 minutes would be enough, but it would take a professional copywriter 4 hours to do the same task . The productivity gap is a staggering 90% or more . This was the formula of the traditional publishing industry. High quality = high cost = high price But now a new formula has emerged. Decent quality = near-zero cost = explosive volume At this moment, the rules of the game changed . The web is being filled with AI. As of April 2025, more than 74% of newly created web pages will contain AI-generated text. Until November 2022, before ChatGPT was released, almost 100% of the text was written by humans . In just two and a half years, half of the web has been filled with AI content. There's a case that illustrates this phenomenon most clearly. Between May 2023 and May 2025, the number of AI-generated "news sites" exploded from 49 to 1,271 . Even news is no exception. The reason is simple: economics . In an era where unlimited ChatGPT access costs just $20 per month, companies can produce hundreds of pieces of content for the salary of a single writer . (With effective use of APIs and prompts, this cost can be reduced even further.)
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Light things I made during the holidays
Before we get started, let me start by saying that rather than criticizing the Kakao update, if you're in the IT industry, you should give it some thought. Since then, I've noticed a significant increase in the number of 👎 and 🤮 emojis in every post. This is interesting, but... please keep it to yourself. This holiday was long. Because of the long break, I had a lot of time to reflect, and I created several sites that I personally needed or thought would be useful. While creating them, I focused on creating static pages with zero maintenance costs. After much deliberation, I decided to actively utilize GitHub's Pages feature and GitHub Actions. So, I created and deployed the four sites shown below. 🟣 Color.oswarld.com The simplest way to design your colors. Color.oswarld.com is a mini tool that lets you quickly explore color combinations that suit your brand or project. Enter a HEX code, and it automatically calculates the contrast ratio and displays readability in light and dark modes at a glance. Even non-designers can easily balance colors and create visual harmony. 🔤 Font.oswarld.com Find a good font. (Sub-compatible with Nunnu) Font.oswarld.com is a site where you can preview various fonts in actual sentences and experiment with combinations. By placing different fonts in various areas, such as titles, body text, and captions, you can compare and determine the tone and manner of your design. Web font links are also instantly generated, allowing you to immediately apply the results to your projects. ⚛️ Periodic.oswarld.com A periodic table that I forgot to make easy to see. Periodic.oswarld.com is an interactive periodic table that provides a quick overview of the elements' names and symbols, as well as their states, classifications, and examples of use. Clicking on the periodic table reveals a summary and characteristics of each element, making it ideal for learning or as a content resource. 💰 Pricing.oswarld.com A calculator that intuitively simulates pricing strategies. Pricing.oswarld.com is a static web tool that easily estimates optimal pricing based on pricing theories like Van Westendorf and Gabor-Granger. By inputting customer count, cost of goods sold, margins, and average competitor prices, it instantly visualizes your profit structure and optimal pricing. It supports decision-making based on "data, not intuition," without complex modeling. The little pages I created during the long holiday were perhaps my inner thought-organizing tools. Rather than making something grand, small, tangible experiments seem to last longer. This time there were four, but next time I might make something with the theme of 'time' or 'space'.
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