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Towards Trustworthy Vital Sign Forecasting: Leveraging Uncertainty for Prediction Intervals

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Li Rong Wang, Thomas C. Henderson, Yew Soon Ong, Yih Yng Ng, Xiuyi Fan

Outline

This paper proposes a method for providing reliable uncertainty quantification, specifically adjusted prediction intervals (PIs), to enhance clinicians' confidence and interpretation when applying deep learning models to predict biosignals such as heart rate and blood pressure. Based on the Reconstruction Uncertainty Estimate (RUE), we propose two methods: a parametric approach assuming a Gaussian copula distribution and a non-parametric approach using k-nearest neighbors (KNN). Experimental results using minute- and hourly-sampled data demonstrate that the Gaussian copula method outperforms low-frequency data, while the KNN method outperforms high-frequency data. This suggests that the RUE-based PI can provide interpretable and uncertainty-aware biosignal predictions.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
We demonstrate that the reliability and interpretability of biosignal prediction can be improved by using RUE-based prediction intervals (PIs).
Leverage the advantages of RUE, which is sensitive to data changes and supports label-free correction.
By presenting two methods, Gaussian copula and KNN, we show the possibility of generating PIs suitable for various data characteristics.
The practicality of the method is verified through experimental results on high-frequency and low-frequency data.
Limitations:
The performance of the proposed method may vary depending on the dataset used (especially the difference in performance between high- and low-frequency data).
Further research is needed to determine generalizability across diverse biosignals and clinical settings.
The assumption of the Gaussian copula method (Gaussian copula distribution) may not always fit real data.
The computational cost of the KNN method can be relatively high.
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