🚀 AI App Wars 2.0: Google vs ChatGPT, Chinese Dark Horses Strike Back
Key Takeaways • Big Tech Showdown: Google Gemini challenges ChatGPT's dominance, reaching #2 on web and half the mobile user base • Chinese AI Army Emerges: 3 apps in web top 20, 22 out of 50 mobile apps are Chinese-developed, conquering global markets • Coding Revolution Accelerates: Lovable surges to #22, AI-powered app generation era fully underway • Ecosystem Consolidation: Only 11 new web entrants (down from 17), clear winners and losers emerging • All-Star Club: 14 companies make 5 consecutive top lists, establishing themselves as AI market champions ChatGPT Still maintains its iron grip on the #1 position across both web and mobile platforms, cementing its status as the undisputed leader. However, Google Gemini is mounting a serious challenge, capturing 12% of ChatGPT's web traffic and achieving nearly half of ChatGPT's monthly active users (MAUs) on mobile. The competitive pressure is intensifying, particularly as Chinese rivals gain ground in their home market where ChatGPT faces access restrictions. Google Gemini Google's flagship AI assistant delivered the most impressive performance in this ranking cycle. Securing solid #2 positions on both web and mobile, Gemini has established itself as ChatGPT's primary challenger. Its dominance is particularly striking on Android devices, where it commands 90% of its user base compared to ChatGPT's 60% Android share. Beyond Gemini, Google demonstrated its AI ecosystem strength by placing four products simultaneously in the top 50: AI Studio (#10), NotebookLM (#13), and Google Labs (#39), showcasing a comprehensive AI strategy across developer tools, productivity, and experimental features. Chinese AI Empire Chinese companies are making unprecedented inroads into the global AI landscape. Three Chinese firms cracked the web top 20: Quark (#9), Doubao (#12), and Kimi (#17), all primarily serving Chinese-language users with over 75% of traffic originating from China. The mobile story is even more dramatic, with 22 out of 50 apps developed in China, though only 3 are primarily used within China—revealing a clear "develop in China, export globally" strategy. Chinese video generation models have particularly excelled over Western counterparts, benefiting from concentrated research talent and more permissive intellectual property regulations that likely enable training on copyrighted data. Google's Veo 3, partially trained on YouTube data, represents the first major U.S. breakthrough in this space. Vibe Coding The AI-powered app generation revolution is gaining serious momentum. Lovable made a spectacular leap from the "Brink List" to #22, while Replit also secured a spot in the main rankings. Credit card panel data reveals the staying power of this trend: U.S. user cohorts for major vibe coding platforms show revenue retention exceeding 100% for several months post-signup. This means that even accounting for user churn, remaining cohorts are expanding their monthly spending. The ecosystem effect is evident as related services like Supabase (a database provider) have seen traffic growth lockstep with vibe coding platforms, experiencing significant acceleration over the past nine months compared to prior years. Grok X's AI assistant Grok achieved remarkable mobile growth, scaling from zero to over 20 million monthly active users since its late 2024 launch. July 2025 proved particularly explosive, with nearly 40% user growth driven by the Grok 4 model release (July 9) featuring superior reasoning and real-time search, followed by AI companion avatars (July 14). The anime avatar "Ani," which included NSFW options, proved especially popular at launch. This mobile success story demonstrates how platform integration can rapidly accelerate AI adoption. DeepSeek The poster child of Chinese AI hype is experiencing a dramatic reality check. Web traffic plummeted over 40% from its February 2025 peak, while mobile usage dropped 22% from its high point. This decline highlights the challenge of converting initial buzz into sustained user engagement, serving as a cautionary tale for AI companies riding viral waves without building lasting value propositions. All-Star Club Fourteen companies have achieved the ultimate validation by appearing in all five web top 50 rankings, establishing themselves as the true aristocracy of consumer AI. These "All Stars" span the full spectrum of AI applications: general assistance (ChatGPT, Perplexity, Poe), companionship (Character AI), image generation (Midjourney, Leonardo), image and video editing (Veed, Cutout), voice generation (Eleven Labs), productivity tools (Photoroom, Gamma, Quillbot), and model hosting (Civitai, HuggingFace). Notably, only five of the fourteen maintain proprietary foundation models, while seven utilize API-available or open source models, and two operate as model aggregators—proving that building on existing infrastructure can be more effective than developing from scratch. Geographically, these champions represent just five countries: the U.S., UK (Eleven Labs, Veed), Australia (Leonardo), China (Cutout Pro), and France (Photoroom, HuggingFace). All but two have raised venture funding, with Midjourney remaining famously bootstrapped and Cutout Pro also self-funded.
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