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Predicting the Lifespan of Industrial Printheads with Survival Analysis

Created by
  • Haebom

Author

Dan Parii, Evelyne Janssen, Guangzhi Tang, Charalampos Kouzinopoulos, Marcin Pietrasik

Outline

This paper presents a study applying survival analysis techniques to predict the lifespan of production printheads developed by Canon Production Printing. Five techniques—the Kaplan-Meier estimator, the Cox proportional hazards model, the Weibull accelerated lifespan model, random survival forests, and gradient boosting—were used to estimate survival probabilities and failure rates. Conformal regression was used to improve the estimates, and the data were aggregated to determine the expected number of failures. The reliability of the model was assessed by comparing actual data with predicted results across multiple time windows. A quantitative evaluation using three performance metrics demonstrated that survival analysis outperforms existing industry-standard methods in predicting printhead lifespan.

Takeaways, Limitations

Takeaways:
We demonstrate that survival analysis techniques can be used to accurately predict the lifespan of production printheads.
Provides a basis for selecting the optimal model through comparison of various survival analysis techniques.
It can contribute to maintenance planning and production optimization in industrial sites.
Demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to existing industry standard methods.
Limitations:
The study subjects are limited to printheads from a specific manufacturer.
Generalizability to other types of equipment or components requires further study.
Model performance may vary depending on the characteristics of the data used.
Further validation of long-term predictive accuracy is needed.
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