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Opponent State Inference Under Partial Observability: An HMM-POMDP Framework for 2026 Formula 1 Energy Strategy

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์ €์ž

Kalliopi Kleisarchaki

๐Ÿ’ก ๊ฐœ์š”

2026๋…„ F1 ๊ทœ์ • ๋ณ€๊ฒฝ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ „๋žต ๊ฒฐ์ • ์‹œ ์ƒ๋Œ€๋ฐฉ์˜ ์ˆจ๊ฒจ์ง„ ์ƒํƒœ ์ถ”๋ก ์ด ์ค‘์š”ํ•ด์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์€ ์ƒ๋Œ€๋ฐฉ์˜ ERS ์ถฉ์ „๋Ÿ‰, ์˜ค๋ฒ„๋ผ์ด๋“œ ๋ชจ๋“œ, ํƒ€์ด์–ด ๋งˆ๋ชจ ์ƒํƒœ๋ฅผ ์ถ”๋ก ํ•˜๋Š” HMM๊ณผ ์ด๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ์ตœ์ ์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋ฐฐ์น˜ ์ „๋žต์„ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” DQN์œผ๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋œ 2๋‹จ๊ณ„ ์ถ”๋ก  ๋ฐ ๊ฒฐ์ • ํ”„๋ ˆ์ž„์›Œํฌ๋ฅผ ์ œ์•ˆํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ธฐ์กด ๋‹จ์ผ ์—์ด์ „ํŠธ ์ตœ์ ํ™” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์–ด๋ ค์šด ๋ถ€๋ถ„ ๊ด€์ฐฐ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ํ™•๋ฅ  ๊ฒŒ์ž„์„ ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฃฐ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๐Ÿ”‘ ์‹œ์‚ฌ์  ๋ฐ ํ•œ๊ณ„

โ€ข
๋ถ€๋ถ„ ๊ด€์ฐฐ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์—์„œ ์ƒ๋Œ€๋ฐฉ์˜ ๋ณต์žกํ•œ ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ์ƒํƒœ(ERS, ๋ชจ๋“œ, ํƒ€์ด์–ด)๋ฅผ ์ถ”๋ก ํ•˜์—ฌ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ „๋žต์„ ์ตœ์ ํ™”ํ•˜๋Š” ์‹ค์šฉ์ ์ธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋ก ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
โ€ข
'์นด์šดํ„ฐ ํ•˜๋ฒ ์ŠคํŠธ ํŠธ๋žฉ'๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ „๋žต์  ๊ธฐ๋งŒ ํ–‰์œ„๋ฅผ ํƒ์ง€ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๋‹จ์ˆœ ์ž„๊ณ„๊ฐ’ ๊ทœ์น™์ด ์•„๋‹Œ, ์‹ ๋… ์ƒํƒœ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์ถ”๋ก ์ด ํ•„์ˆ˜์ ์ž„์„ ์ด๋ก ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ทœ๋ช…ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
โ€ข
์ œ์•ˆ๋œ HMM์€ ๋†’์€ ์ •ํ™•๋„๋กœ ์ƒ๋Œ€๋ฐฉ ์ƒํƒœ๋ฅผ ์ถ”๋ก ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ์ „๋žต์  ์˜์‚ฌ ๊ฒฐ์ •์— ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
โ€ข
์‹ค์ œ ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์  ๊ฒ€์ฆ์ด ์ง„ํ–‰๋  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋ฉฐ, ํ–ฅํ›„ ๋ณต์žกํ•œ ๋‹ค์ค‘ ์—์ด์ „ํŠธ ์ „๋žต ๋ฐ ์‹œ๋ฎฌ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ํ™•์žฅ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ํƒ๊ตฌํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ‘