Looking back 20 years into the past for the next 20 years into the future.
Haebom
Recently, a close younger friend asked me, "What should I do when life feels overwhelming?" and I told him to read a history book. I recommended content that lays out the facts, not historical novels like Romance of the Three Kingdoms. While history is always written from the perspective of the victor and inevitably contains bias, there is wisdom to be gained from it. If you don't find history books interesting, I also suggest reading articles written 20 to 30 years ago in modern times.
The reason I’m starting with this story is that I recently had the good fortune to talk with some people in the US via video conference about what they are focusing on these days. When I lightly asked about prospects for the future, they introduced ideas that were much broader than I expected, which was really fascinating for me. Naturally(?), the conversation started with AI, but that topic quickly cooled off. GPT-# has already been released internally, tested, and its level proven to some extent; as of now, the US AI Safety Institute under NIST is doing research, testing, and evaluation on AI models, and I heard they've already moved on to new agendas. (Some people misunderstand this, but it doesn't mean the AI bubble has burst.)
It seems the folks in the Bay Area are firmly convinced that as AI becomes commonplace and the baseline for AI rises, it will naturally permeate most industries, and it’ll happen as rapidly as the shift to the mobile era did. I also heard the term A2A—AI to Action—for the first time, and people are already brainstorming how to bring AI’s impact into the real world through robotics and everyday applications. We then discussed various topics, from education to biotech to materials science. After the video call, I felt strangely out of place—like I had traveled 10 years into the future. While we’re just now “making fire,” over there, they’re already grilling meat over it, cultivating fields with it, and pondering steam engines.
With this feeling of uncertainty, I suddenly wondered: what were people thinking 20 or 40 years ago? Not just in terms of <2024 Trends>, but really—when it comes to roadmaps or master plans—how far into the future did they try to envision the world we now live in?
Then I came across a book titled <A National Land Plan for the 2000s>, completed in 1979. It was a roadmap that predicted the next 20 years and laid out how Korea should develop. There were frequent conflicts of interest and too many stakeholders, but even so, the plan managed to work at the time. The strong hand of the military regime played a role, but the philosophy and direction of the plan are remarkably clear. And this document, which was started back in 1973, still has much to teach even today. You can really sense its distinct philosophy.
2000년대의국토구상.pdf18.17MB
Back then, there were no computers, so everything was typed out and illustrations were hand-drawn—which makes looking at these diagrams all the more interesting. And considering this was created in the 1970s, the insight on display is pretty incredible.
Interestingly, the document covered issues ranging from overpopulation in the capital region and the disappearance of local areas to how Korea should build up its logistics and energy infrastructure, and how to use its limited resources (land) for future growth. Moreover, what stands out is that even back then, it was already considering relocating the administrative capital to what is now around the area of Sejong City.
I was also struck by the warning that if overpopulation in the capital area led to more people crowding into Seoul, real estate prices would soar, and if people started pouring money into real estate, there’d be nothing left to invest in technology or the future—so such a situation should be avoided. Of course, living in 2024, we can judge this for ourselves, but when you think about that era, it’s amazing how they were predicting the future and offering such proposals.
Even problems everyone knows about may remain unsolved.
Personally, I found this to be a crucial point. Solving even one problem based on this foundation would lay the foundation for many more, leading to opportunities. Furthermore, the Third Republic itself began as a coup d'état, and the sudden change of government occurred without a proper transfer of power. Therefore, even if this was known, it often failed to be implemented. As I delved into the Comprehensive National Territory Plan, I was struck by the Fourth Comprehensive National Road Plan. This document, published in December 1999, contains the national territory plan for the next 20 years. ( Link )
4차 국토종합계획(2000-2020).pdf7.57MB
1979년 국토구상에서 생각한 도로망
1999년 국토종합계획에서 제안된 국토도로망
Looking at these, am I the only one who feels that the 70s plans were somehow more visualized and user-friendly? Anyway, this kind of national land master plan went through Korea’s dramatic modern history and was meant to be implemented under the Roh Moo-hyun administration in the 2000s, but due to politics and business interests, it ended up partially reverting to older forms. The statements, climate, and plans from that era can all be found in the Presidential Archives, so it’s worth checking out if you’re curious.
So, how are the next twenty years being planned? In fact, under President Moon Jae-in, the 5th Comprehensive National Territorial Plan was announced.
제5차 국토종합계획(2020~2040)(홈페이지 공개).pdf10.64MB
When you spread out all the comprehensive land plans, you can’t shake the feeling that somewhere along the line, things started to go off track. I don’t think it’s a problem limited to a particular administration; rather, the values that were emphasized kept changing. Early land development plans were entirely focused on practicality, efficiency, and economic growth. Up until the 4th plan, there were bold ideas like relocating the capital, preventing overpopulation, and restructuring the real estate-based economy. But as all sorts of interests clashed along the way, what we eventually got was a plan that tried to be “pleasing to look at and at least minimally inconvenient for anyone.”
How do you picture things 10 or 20 years from now? To get a glimpse of the future, I went through Korea’s national roadmaps from the 1970s to 2020, and one lesson came through loud and clear: even if you gather all the smartest people and experts, you can build a great theory, but for that to actually happen, someone has to have a strong philosophy, and people need to take real personal responsibility. That applies in startups, in personal life, in families, and in countries.
This post is written purely based on information officially released by the government, and contains no political agenda.
Getting a shock from peeking at the future and then looking back at the past, I feel like what I need to do in the present has become much clearer. Lastly, I want to share one story I recently discovered as I wrap up this piece.
If you dwell on the past, regrets will tie your feet.
If you dwell on the future, worries will cloud your eyes.
Think of the present, and focus on what you can do right now.
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I post articles related to IT 💻, economy 💰, and humanities 🎭.
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haebom@kakao.com
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I post articles related to IT 💻, economy 💰, and humanities 🎭.
If you are curious about my thoughts, perspectives or interests, please subscribe.
haebom@kakao.com