Look to the past 20 years ago for the future 20 years from now.
Haebom
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Haebom
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Recently, a close friend of mine asked me, "What should I do when life is bleak?" and I told him to read a history book. I recommend content that simply lists facts, not historical novels like Romance of the Three Kingdoms. Of course, history is a record of the victors, so there is bound to be bias, but there is wisdom that comes from it. If you don't find history books interesting, I also recommend reading articles written 20-30 years ago in modern times.
The reason I'm suddenly opening up with this story is that I recently had the good fortune to have a video conference with people in the US to talk about what they're focusing on. I was personally very interested in it because they suggested a wider world than I thought in response to my light-hearted curiosity about the future. Naturally(?), the conversation started with artificial intelligence, but the conversation quickly cooled down. GPT-# has already been internally released and has been tested and proven to some extent, and I heard that the US AI Safety Institute under the US Department of Commerce's National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is currently conducting research, testing, and evaluation of AI models, and has already moved on to other agendas. (Some people may misunderstand, but this does not mean that the artificial intelligence bubble has burst.)
As the use of AI becomes more commonplace and the bar for AI rises, it will naturally blend into most industries, and this will happen in an instant, just like the mobile era, Bay already seemed to have a firm idea. Also, I heard the expression A2A for the first time, and they were thinking about new directions in robots and real life, such as how AI to Action will affect the real world. And the topics of the conversation that followed were diverse, such as education, bio, and materials engineering, and at the time, after the video conference, I had a very strange feeling. It was as if I had traveled to the future 10 years later. We were thinking, "We've made a fire!", but over there, it seemed like they were roasting meat with a fire, building charcoal fields, and thinking about steam engines.
In this sense of despair, I suddenly wondered what people would have thought 20 or 40 years ago. I wondered, not in terms of <2024 Trends>, but in terms of plans such as roadmaps and master plans, how far we would view the world we live in now.
Then I found a book called <National Territory Plan for the Year 2000>, which was completed in 1979. This book contained a roadmap for how to develop the Republic of Korea in 20 years. There were frequent conflicts of interest and too many stakeholders, but it worked nonetheless at the time. There was also a strong military regime, but this plan had a very clear philosophy and direction. Also, this document, which was written in 1973, is still very informative even when read today. You can feel its own philosophy.
2000년대의국토구상.pdf19.049194MB
At the time, there were no computers or anything like that, so I used typewriters and drew pictures to display them. It's fun to look at these pictures. Also, considering that it was written in the 1970s, it's amazing how insightful it was.
The document interestingly includes stories about the disappearance of local areas due to overpopulation in the metropolitan area, how to build logistics and energy networks in Korea, and how to use limited resources (land) for future food. Furthermore, it is impressive that the document was considering moving the administration and capital to the vicinity of the current Sejong City.
Furthermore, it is impressive that he warned that if many people gather in Seoul due to overcrowding in the metropolitan area, real estate prices will rise, and if people start pouring money into real estate, there will be no money to use for technological development or investment for the future, so this should not happen. Of course, we are now living in 2024, so we can make our own judgments about this, but when we think about that era, we cannot help but be surprised that he was predicting the future and making suggestions.
You can't even solve problems that everyone knows about.
Personally, this was a huge key point, and I realized that if you solve even one problem based on this, it will become the foundation for many things and come as an opportunity. Also, the Third Republic itself was a regime that started with a coup d'état, and since the regime was not properly transferred, there were cases where it was not implemented even if it was known. So, as I read the National Land Comprehensive Plan, I was impressed by the 4th National Road Comprehensive Plan. This document was published in December 1999 and contains the national land plan for the next 20 years. ( Link )
4차 국토종합계획(2000-2020).pdf7.936434MB
Road network conceived in the 1979 national land plan
National road network proposed in the 1999 National Comprehensive Plan
What can be seen here is that I feel like the visualizations and user-friendly visualizations were better in the 70s, or is it just me? Anyway, this comprehensive national land plan went through the turbulent modern history of the Republic of Korea and was about to be implemented during the Roh Moo-hyun administration in the 2000s, but it ended up being terminated in some of its previous forms for political and profit reasons. It would be fun to look up the social atmosphere, statements, and plans of that time in the Presidential Archives.
When you look at the National Comprehensive Land Plan, you can't help but feel that it's starting to go wrong somewhere. I personally think that it's not a problem with a particular administration, but rather because the values that they hold dear have changed continuously. In the case of the early national land development plans, they were completely focused on practicality, efficiency, and economic development, and up until the 4th plan, there were plans for things like relocating the capital, preventing overpopulation, and restructuring the real estate-based economy, but I think that various vested interests and interests clashed here and there, and a plan that was "good to see and not inconvenient for anyone (or at least inconvenient) came out.
How do you think about 10 years from now, 20 years from now? In order to see the future, I looked at the roadmap of the Republic of Korea, where I live, from the 1970s to 2020, and I clearly learned one lesson. Even if you gather the world's smartest people and experts, you can come up with an ideal theory, but for this to actually be realized, someone's philosophy and people need to have an autonomous sense of responsibility (Accountability). Whether it's a startup, an individual's life, a family, or a country.
This article has no political intentions and is based on information officially released by the government.
After seeing the future and being shocked, I came back to see the past and it seems that it has become clearer what I should do in the present. Finally, I would like to end this article by writing about one story that I found.
When we think about the past, regrets bind our feet. When I think about the future, worries cloud my eyes. Focus on the present and what you can do right now.
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